Thursday, March 29, 2012

Nature moving borders

Last year, as Costa Rica and Nicaragua fought over a small piece of land, one of the issues was over how the Rio San Juan has moved over the past 100-150 years. If the river moves, does the border move too?

Rivers move a great deal over the course of decades, more than most other natural boundaries (like mountains). When boundaries are set by natural geography at a certain moment in time, the risk is that they will move in the future.

The river moving in Central America was one factor setting off a dispute. Are there other border disputes that could arise over similar natural events in the coming century?

While I don't think many mountains will be moving much (the Chile/Argentine border is defined by mountain peaks), it may be maritime boundaries are the big issue. Rising sea levels are likely to change shape of borders as they hit the sea, which can affect rights on fishing and deepsea oil drilling.

Criminal innovation

Over at my other blog, I ask whether the region's criminals are being out-innovated by the Chinese. There are Chinese companies manufacturing complex counterfeit electronic parts, something not done in this region.

That said, we shouldn't look down on the criminal innovation in this region. They build submarines, from scratch, in the jungle! That's pretty impressive. It's worth asking whether it's possible to turn that technical knowledge into a more legitimate and yet still profitable business.

Innovation is often done in a grey market with a hacking and DIY mentality. It's the sort of thing that should be encouraged in Latin America, if only it could be directed away from groups that illegally traffic, kidnap and extort. Experts want to see more innovation in the region? Part of it is happening in the black market. They should be thinking about how to legalize criminal innovations so they become a benefit for the region instead of a drawback.

Repairs


Throughout Latin America, infrastructure is aging in a way that billions must be spent in the coming decade just to maintain or replace what is there, never mind upgrading. Roads, bridges, dams and ports in nearly every country require significant repairs just to keep running.

If you're looking for things that may hold the region back, this is one of them. There are a number of brand new infrastructure projects from the Baluarte Bicentennial Bridge in Mexico to Brazil's transcontinental highways that capture the imagination, but keeping up with repairs on some of the more mundane bridges and highways that are decades old is going to drain public resources and hold back new projects.

We should be looking for ways to turn this negative into a positive. What innovation, either materials or techniques, can be brought by paving a road? What smart technology can be included while we're working on the old infrastructure? How do we make the decisions whether to repair or to tear down and build new?

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Vigilantism, bounties and super-empowered individuals

What if one of Latin America's billionaires offered a $10,000 reward to any person or organization who could provide proof (defined specifically) that a politician, government official or police officer is corrupt.

It would create a rush of private investigators trying to find evidence to win the money. It would put fear in some government officials. At its best, it would be pressure for transparency. At its worst, it would be a sort of vigilantism that unfairly hounded the many officials trying to do good work.

It's worth debating whether it's a good or bad idea. It's also worth thinking about the fact that few laws would prevent a super-empowered rich individual from offering such a set of prizes and starting this cycle.

30 days left

30 days down and 30 to go with stage one of this experiment. How do I think it's going?

  • I appreciate all the feedback, much of it positive.
  • I've liked having a place to think and write about topics that seem to fall outside my usual blogging.
  • I've written less than I've wanted to. Time to write is always a challenge and I've spent more time on my usual blogging than here.
  • That countdown clock looms over me every day. Whatever direction I take this, I need to write more.
  • I've enjoyed the freeform write about anything, but I may need to give this blog a bit more direction if I hope to get some useful longer essays out of it in the end.
So, it's not going quite as well as I had thought at my most optimistic, but I'm still finding it to be useful and entertaining.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Biotech to fight dengue

La Prensa:

During the event, it was reported that the British firm Oxitec plans to release thousands of mosquitoes that have been genetically modified to fight dengue in Panama and Costa Rica, as well as in the Florida Keys.

I think this is probably a good thing, but it's amazing that it's being done almost completely without government regulation. It's another example where Latin America and its political leaders need to catch up to modern technology or risk having things happen in the region without any debate. Where are the politicians in the region who are interested in regulating and encouraging/discouraging biotechnology and genetically modified insects to combat disease?

Bringing biotechnology to mining

A few days ago, I offered brief speculation on robotics being used in Latin American mining projects. The BBC highlights a potentially different trend with a Chilean firm using bacteria to extract copper. The microbes break down the various minerals in the rocks until only copper remains. It concludes:
If it works, one day it might be possible to get mine for copper without digging huge pit mines. Instead, miners would simply drill two holes to introduce a solution full or with microbes, and then collect it once it contains copper.
It sounds like the technology may be closer in some ways than the robotics.

Drones to fight deforestation

Conversationists are building drones that can monitor deforestation rates and capture evidence of illegal logging (Mashable, Tree Hugger). It moves the problem of deforestation from one of too little information (we used to have no idea what occurred in the remote regions of the Amazon) to one where people almost have too much information. How do they track all of the videos and info that they will collect?

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Solving power outages

Last year, a power outage struck the entire country of Nicaragua and I had to go to the bank. So, I decided to call the bank to see if they were open on generator power. Conversation:
Me: Hey, are you open?
Bank: Of course. Why wouldn't we be?
Me: Well, the power is out in the entire country.
Bank: Oh, I didn't know that.
Me: So are you running on generator power?
Bank: Must be, I don't really know. 
I'm fortunate enough to have a backup generator, as are most banks, hospitals and major businesses. I was still struck by the fact that the bank tellers didn't even know that there was a nationwide power outage or that they were running on generator power right at that moment.

The poor and businesses without much capital just have to suffer through the constant power outages. They certainly know when the power is off for hours at a time.

There are two ways to solve this problem. The first is to build a better national power system including generators and grids. It's a big investment that requires national political will. It would help productivity nationally and reduce costs lost to power outages and gas-fuel generators.

Alternatively, we can wait for generator and battery technology to drop in price and move more towards solar and other renewables so that far more people can afford backup power when the national grid goes offline. This is a decentralized solution that doesn't require the same big political effort and would produce a more resilient system.

I'm not sure which solution is better. Both come with benefits and drawbacks.

Monday, March 19, 2012

An X prize for security

Alejandro Hope suggests that Mexico should use a model like that of the X prize to reward better security in Mexico. The governor and top state officials who manage the best improvements on security would receive millions.

I'm not sure I agree fully with his methodology, but I like the general concept and I'd like to think about how to extend it to Central America. What sort of reward system could create the sorts of changes and individual accountability that could improve security?

Computers to replace journalists (and bloggers)

A computer with decent artificial intelligence should be able replace some of the most boring aspects of journalism (and blogging). There are already programs that put together sports stories based on the box scores. Computer programs have figured out how to search newspapers and aggregate the links that people will find most interesting.

Computers can't yet write a tough analysis lamenting the fact that the US isn't paying enough attention to Latin America and giving the most recent examples, but they might get there soon enough. Just program the computer to write and publish that story every six months with updated anecdotes.

One long-term question for the region should be whether computers may be able to replace the most dangerous aspects of journalism. With dozens of journalists killed over the past decade, the region could use some fearless AI reporters. Computers obviously would be harder to threaten or kill for reporting on the issue. They could be manipulated, but it would be different than bribing or threatening a human. I see some obvious limitations in how computers might be able to report on those issues, but it's worth asking what would it take for a computer to report on police corruption or drug violence? 

I don't think we'll get there soon and there will always be a role for human reporters on the ground. However, if there was a way for computers to track and report corruption of local officials based on data mining and other methods, it could change the nature of investigative reporting in the region.

Bringing robotics to mining

One of the most dangerous jobs in the hemisphere is mining. The rescue of the Chilean miners in 2010 was a very positive story, but usually those disasters end in tragedy. Dozens, perhaps even hundreds (statistics aren't formally kept at many mines) die every year in mining accidents around the region.

This sort of dangerous work is a prime area where robotics can help reduce the number of deaths. While there will always be a need for some humans, robots can take humans out of the most dangerous areas and do the hardest work.

Of course, in spite of the danger, I'm sure many miners are glad to have jobs and don't want to be replaced by robots. Additionally, in countries where labor costs are low, the technology must become much, much cheaper before it's cost effective to pay for a robot. That's a sad statement when talking about a human life, but it's the truth for mining companies worried about the bottom line.

Robotic drug subs

Wired's Danger Room blog covers the US Navy push to build robotic submarines. The current models aren't quite up to what the Navy needs. However, the technology is getting close to what is needed by illicit traffickers, who are only going to be a few steps behind anything done by military contractors.

Traffickers just need to get across the Caribbean or up the Pacific coast. Then they need to cross the Atlantic to Africa or Europe to get drugs or other contraband to those markets.

For the traffickers, it's an issue of technology and then scalability. They need the tech to be cheap enough so that the contraband pays for the transportation plus they can absorb some seizures and lost items. The technology and cost are not there yet. However, I bet we see the first robotic underwater drone used by a criminal group inside a decade, at least as a test run.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Urban farming in a breadbasket

I've been spending time reading about vertical farming in urban environments as a possible way to feed future populations and conserve water supplies.

The biggest megacity regions in South America - Rio, Sao Paulo, Buenos Aires and Bogota - all exist right near some large agricultural areas that are fully capable of feeding them. Unlike other urban areas of the world, the need for vertical farming doesn't seem particularly urgent. It would help save water and it could help boost exports to regions like China where the demand for food continues to outstrip supply. However, those are secondary benefits not currently driven by local demand.

All this is to say that I think some form of vertical farming is likely in the future around the world, but without significant leadership or some economic incentive, South America may be one of the last regions to adopt it.

On the other hand, the Caribbean where land for agriculture and fresh water are at a premium could have the conditions to be an early adopter.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Drones going mainstream

Great article in today's Washington Times. Read it in full. Then think about the implications for Latin America when you know the following groups will have access to unmanned aerial vehicles in the coming decade:

  • Militaries
  • Police
  • Private security contractors
  • Organized criminal groups
  • Gangs
  • Human Rights NGOs
  • Shipping companies
  • Schools
I recently gave several talks on the implications of criminal groups and private security organizations getting drones in Latin America. It changes the security environment in ways that will be tough for the already overwhelmed governments to manage. 

At a more general level, in some places, the regulations aren't in place for anyone to be using these devices. Where there are regulations, they are often poorly enforced.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Should LatAm mandate Asimov's 3 laws?

A new paper suggests that the world is falling behind on debating how to make robots act ethically. Obviously, this is an issue in its infancy in most of the world and not even discussed in Latin America. What country will be the first to mandate some sort of ethical requirements in its robots?

Monday, March 12, 2012

Brazil as the next space power

Good article from i09:

While lacking a manned shuttle initiative, Brazil is poised as a hotbed for space exploration along with private and joint government launches in the coming decades. Additionally, Brazil's Science without Borders programs aims to spend two billion dollars to educate 75,000 students pursuing advanced degrees in engineering and physical sciences at home and abroad, with hope that some of those students will return to work in Brazil. Yes, Brazil, thanks to its location and initiative, could very well become the planet's spaceport of choice in the late 21st Century.
It's infrastructure plus education plus location (being the the equator helps).

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Solve murder cases

Currently, there are numerous countries in Latin America and the Caribbean with absurdly high impunity rates. Less than 10% of murders and other violent crimes are solved in some countries, and there are several countries where reaching a 90% impunity rate would be a significant improvement. Nearly every expert agrees that one key step to reducing the rates of violent crime is to reduce impunity.

This is an area where the region should aim big. There is no reason to believe that this problem is unsolvable. Let's flip the current number around and make the goal for every country in the region that 75% of new homicide cases are investigated and prosecuted. Set the timeline at 10 years. 

I'm tempted to say "solve every murder," because the thought of allowing one out of four killers go free is rather depressing. I also hate to say "new homicide cases" because that leaves a lot of cold cases open from the past. Still, I want to set something that is both ambitious and yet still achievable if a significant effort is taken.

Even in the US today, only about 60% of murders are solved according to national police statistics, and in some urban areas that number is under 30%. The US should be a part of this program and would be measured against whether they could reach the goal as well.

Beyond political will, what would it take to get 75% of all new homicide cases solved and prosecuted? I think some of the basics are recommendations that most analysts already know:
1) More and better police
2) More and better prosecutors and judges
3) Improved witness protection programs
4) Improved statistics on violent crime
5) Information sharing within countries and across countries
6) Forensics labs
7) Better technology
8) Etc. I'm sure I'm missing several items

Many of those recommendations are already being nominally implemented by countries, at times with the help of the US and other international donors. I'm sure the first criticism some will have of this post is that "We're already doing x!" One problem here is of scale and ambition. Sure, Mexico (with its impunity rate around 97% according to independent analysts) just funded a new forensics lab and has new police training programs, but does anyone think the resources currently being spent by Mexico and the US will help the country reach 75% of murders solved within 10 years? No. I think setting the ambitious goal should help us realize that the current level of resources spent on these recommendations is nowhere near enough. More needs to be done in all of these areas.

Additionally, the challenge is making these recommendations effective in an environment where corruption is an ever-present problem. To counter this, I'm going to make a more unorthodox recommendation: The hemisphere needs a regional crime-solving unit working in parallel with national authorities. While others have recommended a group similar to the CICIG for Honduras, El Salvador or for the Central American Northern Triangle, I'm recommending setting up a region-wide group that any country can work with. This regional group should include police, investigators, prosecutors, scientists, IT people and some very gutsy leadership. Rather than wait for approval of one or more countries, the hemisphere's leaders (specifically, the US, Mexico and Brazil) should build the group first and give it the resources to start investigations, which should encourage countries to join in.

To summarize:
1) We need to set the ambitious goal to end impunity. My suggestion is 75% of all new homicide cases solved within ten years.
2) We need to collect and allocate the resources to match the goal.
3) We need to organize and fund a regional organization that can investigate violent crimes, preferably in coordination with other governments.

Swarm robot trafficker

If the hemisphere's criminal groups had long term plans and major R&D investments, they'd be looking at the field of swarm robotics right now.

As the US and allies have gotten better at seizing large shipments of cocaine and other trafficked items, criminal groups have moved towards more numerous, smaller shipments. Add another 50 (or 20?) years of technology and take that logic to an extreme, and the criminal groups could consider sending small shipments inside of thousands of robotic boats that swarm towards the coast of the US. That sort of move would overwhelm the current maritime defenses that the US has in place and guarantee that a certain amount reaches shore.

For that to be economical, the robots must be cheap, scalable and available for purchase or building by criminal groups in the region. That's not going to happen in the next decade, but will almost certainly occur this century.

Friday, March 9, 2012

Thinking long on China's economic impact

Useful stats on the regional economic projections over the next 20-40 years.
Mexico will join the Big 7 by 2030 and Indonesia by 2050. By then, the United States will be the only advanced country to rank among the world’s seven largest economies. At the same time, China will become the center of world trade, representing by far the largest trading partner for most countries. Its share of world trade will reach 24 percent by 2050, up from about 10 percent today.

The rise of emerging economies other than China will create major opportunities for Latin American countries. Today, about 40 percent of Latin America’s exports go to other developing countries, including China; this figure will surge as developing countries’ share of world exports will more than double from 30 percent in 2006 to 69 percent in 2050. 
Beyond the China angle, a few other things stand out. First, Mexico and Brazil will be increasingly important markets for the hemisphere and the US will remain one of the top trading partners, even looking 40 or 50 years into the future.

Second, watch out for Indonesia. Most regional analysts are watching China. Some are watching India and expect that to be one of the next big things in the coming decade. If Indonesia is going to be one of the world's top seven economies in forty years, then they are going to be one of the top economies for trade with Latin America and the Caribbean. I don't think many Latin American countries are thinking through their Indonesia relations, but perhaps they should start.

Cash and crime

Slate tackles a topic I was considering writing on: would eliminating physical money change or reduce crime?

While saying that electronic funds would simplify tracking and auditing certain crimes for government authorities, the article offers this anecdote from the region:

Latin America already offers a glimpse of one such substitute mechanism in action. As its economy grows ever more fluid (most South and Central Americans bank on their phones, using mobile apps that offer accounting and brokerage services), people have turned to “stored value cards,” which hold a fixed amount of money and can be bought or sold like any other good. Since they don’t draw from a bank account—funds and data are maintained by the card issuers and accessed by scanning a magnetic stripe—these cards are much harder to track. In a cashless world, SVCs might join precious metals and gems as currencies favored for illegal transactions.
There are still too many people in Latin America lacking access to basic identity documents much less bank accounts to make a cashless society possible. But the presence of bank accounts and credit cards has reduced the amount of hard currency. 

There is probably a middle ground on this question that Latin America is approaching. For example, Mexico has banned large cash purchases to avoid drug money being used to buy cars, yachts and property. It's far from the cashless society and every cup of coffee being tracked electronically, but it's a reasonable policy given today's technology and the access the average citizen has to it.

Teaching Languages

Education systems in Latin America get to make a choice on teaching second languages at a young age:
1) Teach English as it's the key global language and will assist in interactions with the US.
2) Teach Portuguese (or in Brazil, Spanish) as it will help integrate the region.
3) Teach Chinese (or Hindi or....) because it's the global language of the future
4) Teach the local indigenous language to preserve cultural heritage.

I can see a case for all four, but in an environment where there are limited resources, particularly time, education systems will only get one (if that). I don't know that any of those choices is necessarily right or wrong, but it does say something about how a country views their future in 10-20 years.

Thursday, March 8, 2012

A LatAm Silicon Valley needs risk-takers

Lots of countries in the hemisphere want to create their own version of Silicon Valley, including Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Costa Rica and even Guatemala. Doing so requires people, education and infrastructure. All of these countries are looking for the right mix on those fronts.

It needs the right government incentives and investments as well as the willingness of governments to step back and reduce red tape and bureaucracy for these companies. Most startups fail and no investor or entrepreneur wants to spend 3-6 months doing paperwork to create a company that may or may not last a year.

However, it also takes a culture of risk-taking, and that is something that Latin America needs to accept and build. Many of the people in the region who went to the best universities or come from the wealthy families don't want to start something that might fail. What's seen as a mark of experience in the US Silicon Valley is seen as a terrible black spot on the resume of a Latin American 20 or 30-something who is applying for a job.

Even more than the US, it's also a paperwork heavy culture, in which the degree is more important than the experience. While many programmers dream of building the next Apple, Microsoft or Facebook, an anecdotal survey from a Latin American university suggests that no student would consider leaving to start his or her own business. What is a risky proposition in the US, but one that someone can bounce back from, is truly career suicide in this region.

The infrastructure, education and government incentives are important and governments must invest in those areas to succeed if they dream of creating a technology hub. However countries in this hemisphere also need to address the culture issue. How do they make failure acceptable? How do they students who dream bigger than the degree? How do they encourage the best people and those with the best ideas to take that risk?

Will 3d printers beat the illegal organ trafficking market?

Organ trafficking isn't as big of a problem in the Western Hemisphere as it is in parts of Asia, but it still does happen. It's an awful illicit market. Some victims have their organs forcibly removed. Others choose to sell their organs due to dire poverty, but that doesn't necessarily make it an ethical or medically sound thing to occur.

This could change with scientists working to print synthetic organs on 3d printers. Having a an ethical alternative that is eventually the same cost or even cheaper than the illegal market should destroy trafficking in illegal organs. It's one victory in the fight against organized crime that we should be able to thank technology for in the next 20 years.

A virtual Summit of the Americas 2

When I wrote the previous post on using video teleconferencing for presidential meetings, I didn't realize that one was already planned. Oppenheimer reports that the presidents of Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile recently held a virtual summit over video teleconference.

That's a great start and more can be done. These don't just have to be private discussions among president. Public events and participation by civil society and the business community are possible as well.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Economic warfare vs food speculators

Recent food price spikes were largely driven by speculators. Another spike is expected in 2013 and there are fears that a food price bubble could impact the entire global supply chain.

Could a Latin American country use deception and economic warfare to fight back? Regulating the speculation market, one of the leading and more sensible recommendations, is playing defense. It will take significant resources while speculators work to get around regulations.

All it takes is a few vindictive leaders with resources and motivation to finally break the speculator's economic games for that war to begin. One leader of a major economy or a few key countries from smaller economies could coordinate to distribute misleading information and try to force speculators into making mistakes. A country attempting to manipulate the market prices to throw off speculators and harm their businesses would be criticized by most major economies, but it's likely they would have reached a point where they don't care.

This sort of deception and economic warfare would be difficult, but not impossible. More troubling, like real wars, the ongoing dispute if done correctly would likely cause world markets to shake violently, leading to a number of second and third order consequences that would likely hurt everyone.

It's best if we don't get to that sort of economic war moment that impacts the food everyone needs. However, the food price speculation debate is usually put in terms of regulate or not regulate. If a group of countries force that debate into terms of regulate or economic warfare, it would draw attention to the issue and create a more likely environment for regulation.

Like most things on this blog, I'm not recommending any country go down this route, just speculating on an out of the box scenario.

Private sector drones are coming


In Central America, there are currently at least five private security guards for every one police officer, possibly more depending on the statistics you use. What happens when there are five private security drones for every one that is used by police and military?

The cost for unmanned aerial vehicles has dropped rapidly in recent years. For less than $500, a person or company can obtain a drone capable of flying a preprogrammed track and taking video or photos. More money brings longer flying time, better imagery and other capabilities. While UAVs are currently only used by government forces, given the current costs, I think this trend will be visible in Latin America and the Caribbean within five years and considered a normal operation by some private firms within ten.

Private security companies will find numerous uses for drones. The first is imagery and video surveillance. They are going to use UAVs to monitor the areas they are protecting. They may also use them for mobile protection, following the vehicles of people they are guarding. They may also use them to track shipments in cargo trucks and ships in high crime areas.

The next step will be using UAVs for gathering intelligence on potential threats. That will be more controversial. They may also build UAVs with the potential to eavesdrop on conversations, break into wifi networks or jam the communications systems of bad guys.

The final and most controversial step would be any sort of weaponization of UAVs. I imagine that many countries will write laws to prohibit that sort of use, even if they allow companies to use them for video and photos.

Countries will also need to think through the monitoring and control of their airspace to prevent crashes or hazards above key locations.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

100 year view on climate change in CentAm

A new study providing the 100 year view on climate change in Central America is rather grim. Temperatures will rise by over 2 degree Celsius in most of the region. This will reshape agriculture, reduce biodiversity and could cause diseases to spread, such as dengue reaching San Jose, Costa Rica.

Most importantly, there will be less water in key agricultural areas. Countries, if they keep the same borders, will likely fight over fresh water supplies, river flows and watersheds. Countries need to think through and prepare water management plans if they hope to provide for their entire populations in the coming decades. When the water does arrive, it will often be in the form of devastating floods and hurricanes, requiring better resilience and responses by regional authorities.

Water vs Internet

It's easier to bring internet connections to slums than water, sewage or garbage removal services. That will be even more true ten years from now, when it's likely that well over 50% of populations in slums will have access to internet, television and phone communications. That is a big quality of life improvement and opens up new opportunities for businesses and education. It will happen whether or not cities and countries invest because that is the way technology is moving.

The ability to move high speed data connections wirelessly means there is less need to solve the problem of the last mile or last 100 feet. Cities can't move water, sewage or garbage wirelessly. The basic questions about infrastructure aren't going away.

Whether those slums can access clean water or decent sewage removal depends almost entirely on government investments. That's not to say that the 19th and 20th century models of delivering those services is the only way. There may be some innovative solutions. However, the free market and advancing technology are much less likely solve those problems without some government investment.

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Rio's control room and others

Today's NYT highlights Rio de Janiero's high tech control room. It's the first of its kind in the world to help manage issues from traffic to natural disasters within the giant city.

Obviously, IBM believes this is part of the future of cities and wants every city to have one at some point in the future. The article cites several examples where the system helped the city respond in a more effective manner including the recent building collapse. Given the major events coming up in Rio, it seems like a smart investment for the city.

But should every big city in the region get one of these control rooms? There are questions about how cost-effective these systems are and whether they are really necessary, especially when you consider other programs that could be purchased with the money. Centralizing crisis management at the megalopolis level may be less effective than building small systems at the neighborhood level. It's easy to be wowed by the screens and maps in a control room without really knowing how useful they are.

I think a lot of city managers will be traveling to Rio in the coming five years to see this system and determine whether they need one.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

City-state secession

In one of this blog's first posts, I said one possible long-term (100 year) future for the region would be for some countries to split apart with city-states taking a role.

To build on that: What is the first city to secede from its national government in Latin America or the Caribbean?

Here are a few criteria that I think would make it more likely. It would need to be a city that is not the capital or center of national politics. It would probably need to be a city with access to a coastline or at least a border, because being landlocked and surrounded would not be helpful. It would probably also need to be a city that has a different political, economic or social makeup from the capital or the national demographics.

In the context of modern Latin America, there is one city that fits all of those criteria: Guayaquil, Ecuador.  I could easily imagine a narrative that leads to it calling for separation from the national government in Quito in the coming decades.

There are a few other possibilities if you look 50 years out. There are some towns on the Caribbean coast of Central America, particularly in Honduras and Nicaragua, that could hypothetically call for full separation from the national government as they've been generally ignored throughout their history anyway. Rio or Sao Paulo or some cities in Northern Brazil (Recife?) could hypothetically make the attempt, though it's hard to imagine a political future today in which they do. I could also imagine an outlier scenario in which the Yucatan or Baja California areas of Mexico could make that attempt.

None of these scenarios are likely. I don't intend to predict that any of this will occur. However, whatever happens in the next 50 years to the borders of the region, it will be something that is considered an "unlikely" scenario today. Only by looking at the current map and imagining various possible futures can we really think about how Latin America can change 50 or 100 years out.

Will there be caudillos in 100 years?

For almost the past 200 years, Latin America has transitioned through democracies, dictatorships and numerous points in between. Yet, the concept of caudillo, the charismatic leader, seems to have remained fairly constant throughout. It's a concept that is taught in every Latin American politics, history and literature course.

Is that still true in 2112? Will the region, or parts of it, still be cycling through charismatic populist leaders? This is, of course, an impossible question to answer, but it's fun to speculate. If you believe that progress on better governance can or will happen, then you probably think it is at least possible for the region to move past the caudillo mindset. If you believe that past trends do a pretty good job of predicting future trends, then there's probably more than a few leaders proclaiming themselves the next Simon Bolivar in the century ahead.

Then again, maybe the analytical concept of caudillismo is too simple to use. Today's populist leader isn't the same as the one in 1950 or 1850, but we throw them under the same broad historical framework of "caudillo" to give the analysis a bit of coherence over time. Historians and political scientists may very well use the term caudillo in 2112 to describe some charismatic leader, but it will look nothing like today, much less Facundo.

Can Brazil go supersonic?

When the Concorde was in style, it was used to make the US to Europe trip in less than half the time it takes normal planes. There were problems (economic, physical and other) with the plane, but the concept of it connecting the two continents and making trips fast and cheap was a good dream to have.

Given a rising Brazil with its own aviation industry, it's worth believing that they could want a supersonic plane to connect them to North America, Europe, Asia and Africa. It's a long flight to Rio from almost anywhere outside of South America and cutting down the time could help Brazil's general standing.

There are other companies in the world working on a new generation of supersonic passenger jets, and Brazil could always purchase them from elsewhere. Or, Brazil could try to do it on their own. It's a tough but possible technological push that would advance its industry and provide a boost to its reputation.