Thinking long on China's economic impact

Useful stats on the regional economic projections over the next 20-40 years.

Mexico will join the Big 7 by 2030 and Indonesia by 2050. By then, the United States will be the only advanced country to rank among the world’s seven largest economies. At the same time, China will become the center of world trade, representing by far the largest trading partner for most countries. Its share of world trade will reach 24 percent by 2050, up from about 10 percent today.

The rise of emerging economies other than China will create major opportunities for Latin American countries. Today, about 40 percent of Latin America’s exports go to other developing countries, including China; this figure will surge as developing countries’ share of world exports will more than double from 30 percent in 2006 to 69 percent in 2050. 

Beyond the China angle, a few other things stand out. First, Mexico and Brazil will be increasingly important markets for the hemisphere and the US will remain one of the top trading partners, even looking 40 or 50 years into the future.

Second, watch out for Indonesia. Most regional analysts are watching China. Some are watching India and expect that to be one of the next big things in the coming decade. If Indonesia is going to be one of the world's top seven economies in forty years, then they are going to be one of the top economies for trade with Latin America and the Caribbean. I don't think many Latin American countries are thinking through their Indonesia relations, but perhaps they should start.