Teachers need to adapt to computers

The Economist reports on the apparent failure of One Laptop Per Child in Peru, not the first media outlet to notice the problem. In spite of a large investment in laptops, children's test scores have not improved, nor have other measures like attendance and participation.

The article says that Peru has failed to invest in educating teachers and improving curriculum to best utilize the new technologies. It makes some sense.

I don't believe children have not gotten any benefits from the new laptops. There must be some advantages to kids having these new tools and learning how to use them. But if the basic reading and math scores are not improving, there is only so far they can go.

Build some batteries

Well over a majority of the world's known lithium reserves are in South America, centered in Chile, Bolivia and Argentina. If the future of batteries is lithium, then those countries are sitting on a big pile of money. If the future of batteries goes in another direction, then few are going to invest in the process of extracting it and it's going to get a low price.

Understanding the lithium extraction can be a difficult and expensive process, it's still disappointing that none of these countries has decided to build the battery technology on their own. Waiting for outside firms to enter the market simply continues the cycle of dependency that exists in much of the region. This is a rare opportunity to build an industry in the region that uses local resources to manufacture a well developed product to world markets.

Bolivia has tried to find a middle route, insisting that any outside firm investing in local lithium must build a battery plant in the country and transfer the technological knowledge. It's a reasonable condition, but it's still waiting on someone else to help.

Take the risk, spend government R&D funds, build some batteries, create the domestic industry now rather than wait on some other country or corporation to come create it and profit from it. Outside firms should be allowed to invest in the industry, but waiting on them to do so shows a lack of initiative.

Let's be honest, the first batteries are likely to be bad. It's unlikely Chile or Argentina or Bolivia is going to match current technology in their first attempt. It's going to take years of developing the science and technology skills to bring the batteries to a level that they can be exported. However, it will be a worthwhile process to create the skills in the country. The risk is that the country will lose financially if they cannot pull it off. The potential gains are quite high if they do manage it.

Drones to fight deforestation

Conversationists are building drones that can monitor deforestation rates and capture evidence of illegal logging (Mashable, Tree Hugger). It moves the problem of deforestation from one of too little information (we used to have no idea what occurred in the remote regions of the Amazon) to one where people almost have too much information. How do they track all of the videos and info that they will collect?

Robotic drug subs

Wired's Danger Room blog covers the US Navy push to build robotic submarines. The current models aren't quite up to what the Navy needs. However, the technology is getting close to what is needed by illicit traffickers, who are only going to be a few steps behind anything done by military contractors.

Traffickers just need to get across the Caribbean or up the Pacific coast. Then they need to cross the Atlantic to Africa or Europe to get drugs or other contraband to those markets.

For the traffickers, it's an issue of technology and then scalability. They need the tech to be cheap enough so that the contraband pays for the transportation plus they can absorb some seizures and lost items. The technology and cost are not there yet. However, I bet we see the first robotic underwater drone used by a criminal group inside a decade, at least as a test run.

Drones going mainstream

Great article in today's Washington Times. Read it in full. Then think about the implications for Latin America when you know the following groups will have access to unmanned aerial vehicles in the coming decade:

• Militaries
• Police
• Private security contractors
• Organized criminal groups
• Gangs
• Human Rights NGOs
• Shipping companies
• Schools

I recently gave several talks on the implications of criminal groups and private security organizations getting drones in Latin America. It changes the security environment in ways that will be tough for the already overwhelmed governments to manage. 

At a more general level, in some places, the regulations aren't in place for anyone to be using these devices. Where there are regulations, they are often poorly enforced.

Will 3d printers beat the illegal organ trafficking market?

Organ trafficking isn't as big of a problem in the Western Hemisphere as it is in parts of Asia, but it still does happen. It's an awful illicit market. Some victims have their organs forcibly removed. Others choose to sell their organs due to dire poverty, but that doesn't necessarily make it an ethical or medically sound thing to occur.

This could change with scientists working to print synthetic organs on 3d printers. Having a an ethical alternative that is eventually the same cost or even cheaper than the illegal market should destroy trafficking in illegal organs. It's one victory in the fight against organized crime that we should be able to thank technology for in the next 20 years.

Private sector drones are coming

In Central America, there are currently at least five private security guards for every one police officer, possibly more depending on the statistics you use. What happens when there are five private security drones for every one that is used by police and military?

The cost for unmanned aerial vehicles has dropped rapidly in recent years. For less than $500, a person or company can obtain a drone capable of flying a preprogrammed track and taking video or photos. More money brings longer flying time, better imagery and other capabilities. While UAVs are currently only used by government forces, given the current costs, I think this trend will be visible in Latin America and the Caribbean within five years and considered a normal operation by some private firms within ten.

Private security companies will find numerous uses for drones. The first is imagery and video surveillance. They are going to use UAVs to monitor the areas they are protecting. They may also use them for mobile protection, following the vehicles of people they are guarding. They may also use them to track shipments in cargo trucks and ships in high crime areas.

The next step will be using UAVs for gathering intelligence on potential threats. That will be more controversial. They may also build UAVs with the potential to eavesdrop on conversations, break into wifi networks or jam the communications systems of bad guys.

The final and most controversial step would be any sort of weaponization of UAVs. I imagine that many countries will write laws to prohibit that sort of use, even if they allow companies to use them for video and photos.

Countries will also need to think through the monitoring and control of their airspace to prevent crashes or hazards above key locations.

Water vs Internet

It's easier to bring internet connections to slums than water, sewage or garbage removal services. That will be even more true ten years from now, when it's likely that well over 50% of populations in slums will have access to internet, television and phone communications. That is a big quality of life improvement and opens up new opportunities for businesses and education. It will happen whether or not cities and countries invest because that is the way technology is moving.

The ability to move high speed data connections wirelessly means there is less need to solve the problem of the last mile or last 100 feet. Cities can't move water, sewage or garbage wirelessly. The basic questions about infrastructure aren't going away.

Whether those slums can access clean water or decent sewage removal depends almost entirely on government investments. That's not to say that the 19th and 20th century models of delivering those services is the only way. There may be some innovative solutions. However, the free market and advancing technology are much less likely solve those problems without some government investment.

Rio's control room and others

Today's NYT highlights Rio de Janiero's high tech control room. It's the first of its kind in the world to help manage issues from traffic to natural disasters within the giant city.

Obviously, IBM believes this is part of the future of cities and wants every city to have one at some point in the future. The article cites several examples where the system helped the city respond in a more effective manner including the recent building collapse. Given the major events coming up in Rio, it seems like a smart investment for the city.

But should every big city in the region get one of these control rooms? There are questions about how cost-effective these systems are and whether they are really necessary, especially when you consider other programs that could be purchased with the money. Centralizing crisis management at the megalopolis level may be less effective than building small systems at the neighborhood level. It's easy to be wowed by the screens and maps in a control room without really knowing how useful they are.

I think a lot of city managers will be traveling to Rio in the coming five years to see this system and determine whether they need one.

Can Brazil go supersonic?

When the Concorde was in style, it was used to make the US to Europe trip in less than half the time it takes normal planes. There were problems (economic, physical and other) with the plane, but the concept of it connecting the two continents and making trips fast and cheap was a good dream to have.

Given a rising Brazil with its own aviation industry, it's worth believing that they could want a supersonic plane to connect them to North America, Europe, Asia and Africa. It's a long flight to Rio from almost anywhere outside of South America and cutting down the time could help Brazil's general standing.

There are other companies in the world working on a new generation of supersonic passenger jets, and Brazil could always purchase them from elsewhere. Or, Brazil could try to do it on their own. It's a tough but possible technological push that would advance its industry and provide a boost to its reputation.

Parallel networks to stop censorship

In several countries in the hemisphere, the basic internet architecture is mostly owned by a single state telecom or distributed across a small number of private companies. In many cases, there country's connection to the internet moves through one or two chokepoints, making the potential for censorship or a kill switch by the government quite possible.

Internet censorship has been limited so far in Latin America (at least compared to the Middle East or China), but these potential technical restrictions should be a concern to activists who worry that governments or corporations will censor their speech and activity.

It's quite possible that parallel networks will spring up in the coming five to ten years. Civil society groups and technology companies may look to satellite providers or, more controversially, try to bring internet across other borders outside the chokepoints to which governments have access. Being that telecom regulations are often behind the curve in many countries, governments may be caught off guard by the new internet access routes that citizens find and create.

The censorship battle used to be between big media outlets and governments. With citizens now key producers of their own content, the censorship battle is going to look quite different than it did ten years ago. It's nowhere near as simple for a government to block citizen media as it was to seize a television station or block a newspaper from printing.

UPDATE: To follow up on this, read Alison Powell's blog post on darknets and super-encryption.  The downside to activists creating the tools to escape government action is that it breaks apart some of the open communications of the internet. It also creates and enhances tools for criminals to operate online.

Today's memories in 20 years

The past decade has seen a surge of cases related to human rights abuses from the 70's, 80's and 90's. In many cases, the evidence is based on old paper documents from archives and witness testimony.

The human rights cases of 2032 that are filed against abuses of the 2000's and 2010's (assuming that occurs) will look very different. With increasingly ubiquitous cell phone cameras, video cameras and the ability for people to document their experiences through self-publishing, there should be more and better evidence. It will be more difficult (I think) for a government or military to simply lock up an archive and not allow access.

Beyond the evidence at a trial, it changes the nature of memory when it comes to these historical experiences. We're going to have far more photos and videos of events and more witness testimony documented near the time of the event rather than related decades later.

3d printing and copyrights

Combining ideas from two previous posts, one on 3d printing of weapons and the other on intellectual property, Slate has a useful article that says most physical objects would not fall under the same copyright law as IP.

I think this would be a fine line and I imagine several companies will try to change that law.

Specific to my previous post, I imagine many gun manufacturers such as Beretta would be mad if 3d printers were used to create spare parts or completely new replica guns, but perhaps I'm wrong. More broadly, while Slate only addresses US law, this is an interesting spot for Latin American copyright law. Are 3d objects covered? Does it vary country-by-country?

If this does become an issue, will the trade agreements between the US and Latin American countries require modifications to address copyright violations via 3d printers, or would it already be covered under existing agreements?

Augmented Magical Realism

Several media outlets report that Google will sell augmented reality glasses before the end of the year. The glasses will superimpose visuals and data on what the user sees. Several cell phones already do this, but placing it in the glasses could take the technology mainstream.

Using augmented reality technology in fiction is already a consideration, creating the possibility for augmented magical realism in the region. You could wear the glasses and see what appears to be magical effects from a Garcia Marquez story while experiencing reality. It creates a new potential genre or canvas for authors and artists.

3d printers will change weapons trafficking

The technology behind 3d printing is becoming cheaper and more widely available. Within ten years, Latin American universities, businesses and governments should be able to have at least a basic 3d printer and those with money will get more advanced versions.

These printers will reshape manufacturing and medicine (a printer in Europe was recently used to create a new jaw for a patient; doctors are working on a printer that can print a new kidney). But, from the negative side, it's also going to completely reshape the weapons trafficking debate.

What happens when guns and gun parts can be printed locally rather than trafficked across borders? Certainly criminal groups will be able to afford printers that can manage metal or plastic objects that can serve as guns. While the cost will be quite expensive at first, eventually, it will be cheaper to print than smuggle.

For criminals, this could be a boom era. The parts of narcocultura that like to put designs and bling into their guns will get the opportunity to design their own. More seriously, they'll be able to manufacture parts that can easily convert semi-automatic weapons into automatic weapons, perhaps a economically feasible first step for the use of 3d printing for the bad guys. They can also work to design better (more deadly) weapons once they become proficient with the technology.

Governments will attempt restrictions. They'll try to restrict the flow of information including files with gun designs that can be used by the printers. However, that will be nearly impossible. They'll try to restrict the printers and the specific "ink", materials preferred for gun manufacturing. But those restrictions will inhibit innovation and the criminals will find ways around them. They'll try to block ammunition sales, and in this they will only be as successful as they are today.

Police will need some sort of ballistics or forensics mechanism to not just tell which gun fired a bullet but which printer created the gun. One comparison may be to the fight against counterfeit money given better color printers today. There will be questions on the criminal charges people supplying the printers, materials and designs will face.

Then again, this could significantly reduce the cross-border trade in illegal firearms, which is itself a very profitable industry. That loss of profit could hit some criminal group's bottom lines. Could we see criminals sabotaging each other's printers to keep market share?