Reversing urbanization

Latin America is one of the most urbanized regions on the planet, with over 80% of the population living in cities. Several megacities including Rio, Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Buenos Aires and Bogota are well over the five million mark and continue to grow.

Most planners see that trend continuing into the foreseeable future. What would it take for them to be wrong? What sort of crisis, trend or public policy could reverse urbanization in the next 20 or 50 years.

I think the Haiti earthquake shows one very horrific example. Port au Prince was urbanized and overcrowded, but the earthquake created a number of refugees who may never return to the city. That could happen somewhere else, but it's an isolated case that would not create a region-wide trend.

If it economically prospers, Latin America could become suburbanized with people moving just outside of the cities in order to find better housing conditions. A teleworking trend could add to that movement, allowing people freedom to leave urban centers.

On the opposite end, economic decline could cause some cities to decay and could force people to abandon them to find work elsewhere.

In many cases, many of the region's largest cities have old infrastructure that was never intended to support the high populations that exist today. A series of infrastructure failures or government programs to rebuild cities from the underground up could change population patterns.

Continued urbanization isn't a good or a bad thing in itself. It's also not the only possible future for Latin America, even if it's the most likely.