Many US analysts, particularly in the military, point to the evolution of semi-submersibles for cocaine trafficking as one of the important trends in the past decade. At this point, they are starting to see the beginnings of fully submersible and self-contained submarines. It's a statement for how much money the criminals can make if they can build and lose subs.
So what's the next evolution? Asked that, my answer is weapons. I think in the next five years we will see some sort of weapons system on semi-subs and subs that are used by criminals. I don't think these will be highly technical torpedo systems, like exist on military subs. Rather, I think the criminal groups will start with some modification to a gun or grenade that allows the criminals to use them while inside the sub.
Could you imagine a system that allows them to float under a navy boat and release a grenade that rises to the surface and then explodes. Or one that allows them to fire guns at ships when they surface.
Right now, the crew of these vessels generally surrenders or runs as soon as they can, usually while simultaneously sinking the sub to lose the evidence. That's certainly a good problem to have compared to what may be next. If the criminals start innovating to fight back when they face capture, it create a new dynamic for the navies and coast guards of this hemisphere, one for which they are probably quite unprepared.
2 comments:
not only to fight law enforcement, but pirates as well. Yet I believe weight is at a premium in these systems.
If they can carry a couple tons of cocaine, they can manage a few modified guns and grenades. As I wrote, they aren't going to go high tech with this to start.
Good point on the pirates. Criminal on criminal violence may be a bigger threat for them.
Post a Comment