Solving power outages

Last year, a power outage struck the entire country of Nicaragua and I had to go to the bank. So, I decided to call the bank to see if they were open on generator power. Conversation:

Me: Hey, are you open?
Bank: Of course. Why wouldn't we be?
Me: Well, the power is out in the entire country.
Bank: Oh, I didn't know that.
Me: So are you running on generator power?
Bank: Must be, I don't really know. 

I'm fortunate enough to have a backup generator, as are most banks, hospitals and major businesses. I was still struck by the fact that the bank tellers didn't even know that there was a nationwide power outage or that they were running on generator power right at that moment.

The poor and businesses without much capital just have to suffer through the constant power outages. They certainly know when the power is off for hours at a time.

There are two ways to solve this problem. The first is to build a better national power system including generators and grids. It's a big investment that requires national political will. It would help productivity nationally and reduce costs lost to power outages and gas-fuel generators.

Alternatively, we can wait for generator and battery technology to drop in price and move more towards solar and other renewables so that far more people can afford backup power when the national grid goes offline. This is a decentralized solution that doesn't require the same big political effort and would produce a more resilient system.

I'm not sure which solution is better. Both come with benefits and drawbacks.

An X prize for security

Alejandro Hope suggests that Mexico should use a model like that of the X prize to reward better security in Mexico. The governor and top state officials who manage the best improvements on security would receive millions.

I'm not sure I agree fully with his methodology, but I like the general concept and I'd like to think about how to extend it to Central America. What sort of reward system could create the sorts of changes and individual accountability that could improve security?

Computers to replace journalists (and bloggers)

A computer with decent artificial intelligence should be able replace some of the most boring aspects of journalism (and blogging). There are already programs that put together sports stories based on the box scores. Computer programs have figured out how to search newspapers and aggregate the links that people will find most interesting.

Computers can't yet write a tough analysis lamenting the fact that the US isn't paying enough attention to Latin America and giving the most recent examples, but they might get there soon enough. Just program the computer to write and publish that story every six months with updated anecdotes.

One long-term question for the region should be whether computers may be able to replace the most dangerous aspects of journalism. With dozens of journalists killed over the past decade, the region could use some fearless AI reporters. Computers obviously would be harder to threaten or kill for reporting on the issue. They could be manipulated, but it would be different than bribing or threatening a human. I see some obvious limitations in how computers might be able to report on those issues, but it's worth asking what would it take for a computer to report on police corruption or drug violence? 

I don't think we'll get there soon and there will always be a role for human reporters on the ground. However, if there was a way for computers to track and report corruption of local officials based on data mining and other methods, it could change the nature of investigative reporting in the region.

Bringing robotics to mining

One of the most dangerous jobs in the hemisphere is mining. The rescue of the Chilean miners in 2010 was a very positive story, but usually those disasters end in tragedy. Dozens, perhaps even hundreds (statistics aren't formally kept at many mines) die every year in mining accidents around the region.

This sort of dangerous work is a prime area where robotics can help reduce the number of deaths. While there will always be a need for some humans, robots can take humans out of the most dangerous areas and do the hardest work.

Of course, in spite of the danger, I'm sure many miners are glad to have jobs and don't want to be replaced by robots. Additionally, in countries where labor costs are low, the technology must become much, much cheaper before it's cost effective to pay for a robot. That's a sad statement when talking about a human life, but it's the truth for mining companies worried about the bottom line.

Robotic drug subs

Wired's Danger Room blog covers the US Navy push to build robotic submarines. The current models aren't quite up to what the Navy needs. However, the technology is getting close to what is needed by illicit traffickers, who are only going to be a few steps behind anything done by military contractors.

Traffickers just need to get across the Caribbean or up the Pacific coast. Then they need to cross the Atlantic to Africa or Europe to get drugs or other contraband to those markets.

For the traffickers, it's an issue of technology and then scalability. They need the tech to be cheap enough so that the contraband pays for the transportation plus they can absorb some seizures and lost items. The technology and cost are not there yet. However, I bet we see the first robotic underwater drone used by a criminal group inside a decade, at least as a test run.

Urban farming in a breadbasket

I've been spending time reading about vertical farming in urban environments as a possible way to feed future populations and conserve water supplies.

The biggest megacity regions in South America - Rio, Sao Paulo, Buenos Aires and Bogota - all exist right near some large agricultural areas that are fully capable of feeding them. Unlike other urban areas of the world, the need for vertical farming doesn't seem particularly urgent. It would help save water and it could help boost exports to regions like China where the demand for food continues to outstrip supply. However, those are secondary benefits not currently driven by local demand.

All this is to say that I think some form of vertical farming is likely in the future around the world, but without significant leadership or some economic incentive, South America may be one of the last regions to adopt it.

On the other hand, the Caribbean where land for agriculture and fresh water are at a premium could have the conditions to be an early adopter.

Drones going mainstream

Great article in today's Washington Times. Read it in full. Then think about the implications for Latin America when you know the following groups will have access to unmanned aerial vehicles in the coming decade:

• Militaries
• Police
• Private security contractors
• Organized criminal groups
• Gangs
• Human Rights NGOs
• Shipping companies
• Schools

I recently gave several talks on the implications of criminal groups and private security organizations getting drones in Latin America. It changes the security environment in ways that will be tough for the already overwhelmed governments to manage. 

At a more general level, in some places, the regulations aren't in place for anyone to be using these devices. Where there are regulations, they are often poorly enforced.

Should LatAm mandate Asimov's 3 laws?

A new paper suggests that the world is falling behind on debating how to make robots act ethically. Obviously, this is an issue in its infancy in most of the world and not even discussed in Latin America. What country will be the first to mandate some sort of ethical requirements in its robots?

Brazil as the next space power

Good article from i09:

While lacking a manned shuttle initiative, Brazil is poised as a hotbed for space exploration along with private and joint government launches in the coming decades. Additionally, Brazil's Science without Borders programs aims to spend two billion dollars to educate 75,000 students pursuing advanced degrees in engineering and physical sciences at home and abroad, with hope that some of those students will return to work in Brazil. Yes, Brazil, thanks to its location and initiative, could very well become the planet's spaceport of choice in the late 21st Century.

It's infrastructure plus education plus location (being the the equator helps).

Solve murder cases

Currently, there are numerous countries in Latin America and the Caribbean with absurdly high impunity rates. Less than 10% of murders and other violent crimes are solved in some countries, and there are several countries where reaching a 90% impunity rate would be a significant improvement. Nearly every expert agrees that one key step to reducing the rates of violent crime is to reduce impunity.

This is an area where the region should aim big. There is no reason to believe that this problem is unsolvable. Let's flip the current number around and make the goal for every country in the region that 75% of new homicide cases are investigated and prosecuted. Set the timeline at 10 years. 

I'm tempted to say "solve every murder," because the thought of allowing one out of four killers go free is rather depressing. I also hate to say "new homicide cases" because that leaves a lot of cold cases open from the past. Still, I want to set something that is both ambitious and yet still achievable if a significant effort is taken.

Even in the US today, only about 60% of murders are solved according to national police statistics, and in some urban areas that number is under 30%. The US should be a part of this program and would be measured against whether they could reach the goal as well.

Beyond political will, what would it take to get 75% of all new homicide cases solved and prosecuted? I think some of the basics are recommendations that most analysts already know:

1) More and better police

2) More and better prosecutors and judges

3) Improved witness protection programs

4) Improved statistics on violent crime

5) Information sharing within countries and across countries

6) Forensics labs

7) Better technology

8) Etc. I'm sure I'm missing several items

Many of those recommendations are already being nominally implemented by countries, at times with the help of the US and other international donors. I'm sure the first criticism some will have of this post is that "We're already doing x!" One problem here is of scale and ambition. Sure, Mexico (with its impunity rate around 97% according to independent analysts) just funded a new forensics lab and has new police training programs, but does anyone think the resources currently being spent by Mexico and the US will help the country reach 75% of murders solved within 10 years? No. I think setting the ambitious goal should help us realize that the current level of resources spent on these recommendations is nowhere near enough. More needs to be done in all of these areas.

Additionally, the challenge is making these recommendations effective in an environment where corruption is an ever-present problem. To counter this, I'm going to make a more unorthodox recommendation: The hemisphere needs a regional crime-solving unit working in parallel with national authorities. While others have recommended a group similar to the CICIG for Honduras, El Salvador or for the Central American Northern Triangle, I'm recommending setting up a region-wide group that any country can work with. This regional group should include police, investigators, prosecutors, scientists, IT people and some very gutsy leadership. Rather than wait for approval of one or more countries, the hemisphere's leaders (specifically, the US, Mexico and Brazil) should build the group first and give it the resources to start investigations, which should encourage countries to join in.

To summarize:

1) We need to set the ambitious goal to end impunity. My suggestion is 75% of all new homicide cases solved within ten years.

2) We need to collect and allocate the resources to match the goal.

3) We need to organize and fund a regional organization that can investigate violent crimes, preferably in coordination with other governments.

Swarm robot trafficker

If the hemisphere's criminal groups had long term plans and major R&D investments, they'd be looking at the field of swarm robotics right now.

As the US and allies have gotten better at seizing large shipments of cocaine and other trafficked items, criminal groups have moved towards more numerous, smaller shipments. Add another 50 (or 20?) years of technology and take that logic to an extreme, and the criminal groups could consider sending small shipments inside of thousands of robotic boats that swarm towards the coast of the US. That sort of move would overwhelm the current maritime defenses that the US has in place and guarantee that a certain amount reaches shore.

For that to be economical, the robots must be cheap, scalable and available for purchase or building by criminal groups in the region. That's not going to happen in the next decade, but will almost certainly occur this century.

Thinking long on China's economic impact

Useful stats on the regional economic projections over the next 20-40 years.

Mexico will join the Big 7 by 2030 and Indonesia by 2050. By then, the United States will be the only advanced country to rank among the world’s seven largest economies. At the same time, China will become the center of world trade, representing by far the largest trading partner for most countries. Its share of world trade will reach 24 percent by 2050, up from about 10 percent today.

The rise of emerging economies other than China will create major opportunities for Latin American countries. Today, about 40 percent of Latin America’s exports go to other developing countries, including China; this figure will surge as developing countries’ share of world exports will more than double from 30 percent in 2006 to 69 percent in 2050. 

Beyond the China angle, a few other things stand out. First, Mexico and Brazil will be increasingly important markets for the hemisphere and the US will remain one of the top trading partners, even looking 40 or 50 years into the future.

Second, watch out for Indonesia. Most regional analysts are watching China. Some are watching India and expect that to be one of the next big things in the coming decade. If Indonesia is going to be one of the world's top seven economies in forty years, then they are going to be one of the top economies for trade with Latin America and the Caribbean. I don't think many Latin American countries are thinking through their Indonesia relations, but perhaps they should start.

Cash and crime

Slate tackles a topic I was considering writing on: would eliminating physical money change or reduce crime?

While saying that electronic funds would simplify tracking and auditing certain crimes for government authorities, the article offers this anecdote from the region:

Latin America already offers a glimpse of one such substitute mechanism in action. As its economy grows ever more fluid (most South and Central Americans bank on their phones, using mobile apps that offer accounting and brokerage services), people have turned to “stored value cards,” which hold a fixed amount of money and can be bought or sold like any other good. Since they don’t draw from a bank account—funds and data are maintained by the card issuers and accessed by scanning a magnetic stripe—these cards are much harder to track. In a cashless world, SVCs might join precious metals and gems as currencies favored for illegal transactions.

There are still too many people in Latin America lacking access to basic identity documents much less bank accounts to make a cashless society possible. But the presence of bank accounts and credit cards has reduced the amount of hard currency. 

There is probably a middle ground on this question that Latin America is approaching. For example, Mexico has banned large cash purchases to avoid drug money being used to buy cars, yachts and property. It's far from the cashless society and every cup of coffee being tracked electronically, but it's a reasonable policy given today's technology and the access the average citizen has to it.

Teaching Languages

Education systems in Latin America get to make a choice on teaching second languages at a young age:
1) Teach English as it's the key global language and will assist in interactions with the US.
2) Teach Portuguese (or in Brazil, Spanish) as it will help integrate the region.
3) Teach Chinese (or Hindi or....) because it's the global language of the future
4) Teach the local indigenous language to preserve cultural heritage.

I can see a case for all four, but in an environment where there are limited resources, particularly time, education systems will only get one (if that). I don't know that any of those choices is necessarily right or wrong, but it does say something about how a country views their future in 10-20 years.

A LatAm Silicon Valley needs risk-takers

Lots of countries in the hemisphere want to create their own version of Silicon Valley, including Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Costa Rica and even Guatemala. Doing so requires people, education and infrastructure. All of these countries are looking for the right mix on those fronts.

It needs the right government incentives and investments as well as the willingness of governments to step back and reduce red tape and bureaucracy for these companies. Most startups fail and no investor or entrepreneur wants to spend 3-6 months doing paperwork to create a company that may or may not last a year.

However, it also takes a culture of risk-taking, and that is something that Latin America needs to accept and build. Many of the people in the region who went to the best universities or come from the wealthy families don't want to start something that might fail. What's seen as a mark of experience in the US Silicon Valley is seen as a terrible black spot on the resume of a Latin American 20 or 30-something who is applying for a job.

Even more than the US, it's also a paperwork heavy culture, in which the degree is more important than the experience. While many programmers dream of building the next Apple, Microsoft or Facebook, an anecdotal survey from a Latin American university suggests that no student would consider leaving to start his or her own business. What is a risky proposition in the US, but one that someone can bounce back from, is truly career suicide in this region.

The infrastructure, education and government incentives are important and governments must invest in those areas to succeed if they dream of creating a technology hub. However countries in this hemisphere also need to address the culture issue. How do they make failure acceptable? How do they students who dream bigger than the degree? How do they encourage the best people and those with the best ideas to take that risk?