Nature moving borders

Last year, as Costa Rica and Nicaragua fought over a small piece of land, one of the issues was over how the Rio San Juan has moved over the past 100-150 years. If the river moves, does the border move too?

Rivers move a great deal over the course of decades, more than most other natural boundaries (like mountains). When boundaries are set by natural geography at a certain moment in time, the risk is that they will move in the future.

The river moving in Central America was one factor setting off a dispute. Are there other border disputes that could arise over similar natural events in the coming century?

While I don't think many mountains will be moving much (the Chile/Argentine border is defined by mountain peaks), it may be maritime boundaries are the big issue. Rising sea levels are likely to change shape of borders as they hit the sea, which can affect rights on fishing and deepsea oil drilling.

Will there be caudillos in 100 years?

For almost the past 200 years, Latin America has transitioned through democracies, dictatorships and numerous points in between. Yet, the concept of caudillo, the charismatic leader, seems to have remained fairly constant throughout. It's a concept that is taught in every Latin American politics, history and literature course.

Is that still true in 2112? Will the region, or parts of it, still be cycling through charismatic populist leaders? This is, of course, an impossible question to answer, but it's fun to speculate. If you believe that progress on better governance can or will happen, then you probably think it is at least possible for the region to move past the caudillo mindset. If you believe that past trends do a pretty good job of predicting future trends, then there's probably more than a few leaders proclaiming themselves the next Simon Bolivar in the century ahead.

Then again, maybe the analytical concept of caudillismo is too simple to use. Today's populist leader isn't the same as the one in 1950 or 1850, but we throw them under the same broad historical framework of "caudillo" to give the analysis a bit of coherence over time. Historians and political scientists may very well use the term caudillo in 2112 to describe some charismatic leader, but it will look nothing like today, much less Facundo.

What will Latin America's borders look like in 100 years?

Though some borders are obvious due to natural formations (Chile-Argentina), most are simply lines on a map. They started with the Spanish and then were greatly reshaped in the 19th century after independence.

The 20th century was odd in that Latin America's borders barely moved. Sure, there were a few small shifts. There remain several border disputes over relatively small plots of territory. But nothing big.

To think that the borders will remain nearly the same in the coming hundred years is to embrace the 20th century and miss the rest of human history. We're more likely to see big and completely unexpected shifts than to see absolute stagnation for another century.

Here's a few possibilities. These are NOT meant as predictions, but rather to begin thinking about potential ways that borders could move, even if it seems very unlikely today:

• A larger regional structure will form as countries merge under a single federal government. Various countries in Central America may merge into a single unit. Hispañola seems like a likely candidate. Or Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador could combine back into a Bolivarian unit. Or perhaps UNASUR pulls off the big integration effort and we end up with a president of a United South America.
• Countries break apart and new countries or city-states emerge. Rio and Sao Paulo could become one or even two separate countries, completely split off from Brasilia. Bolivia and Peru could both break into two or three parts. Chile could divide itself into multiple long and skinny countries. Mexico could break up.
• Countries could forcibly take territory. Mexico could take over Guatemala. Venezuela could take over Guyana. Argentina could take over Uruguay and Paraguay. Or perhaps the US takes a new state. While violent armed conflict is off the table today, a worst case scenario in 50 years could have countries fighting each other again and taking territory from each other.
• Countries could cede territory, leaving lawless and (officially) ungoverned spaces or new countries. Brazil could decide it doesn't want all of the Amazon. Colombia could give up some of the states where violent actors remain present. A Central American country could decide a portion of the Caribbean coast is simply owned by the indigenous communities there and give up all claims on it.

As I said, I don't expect any of those predictions to happen, but I do expect some larger movement of borders in the coming hundred years. The map in 2112 will not look like the map in 2012. It's all a matter of how and when.